中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

柴油低温临界吸收法回收装车挥发油气

研究了采用柴油低温临界吸收法回收装车挥发油气的效果。实验结果表明：按装车挥发油气中的总烃体积分数为20.88%、装车挥发油气流量为280 m³/h、年运行时间为2 668 h计，装置年回收油气量为291 t，装置年最大运行功率为206.770 MW，装置投资回收期为3 a;处理后净化气中的总烃体积分数为1.24%，排放质量浓度低于25 g/m³，油气回收率达95%。处理后净化气满足GB 20950—2007《储油库大气污染物排放标准》，取得了较好的环保效益和经济效益。     

Robust technology policy against emission leakage: The case of upstream subsidies

Asymmetric regulation of a global pollutant between countries can alter the competitiveness of industries and lead to emissions leakage, which hampers countries’ welfare. In order to limit leakage, governments consider supporting domestic trade-exposed firms by subsidizing their investments in abatement technology. The suppliers of such technologies tend to be less than perfectly competitive, particularly when both emissions regulations and advanced technologies are new. In this context of twin market failures, we consider the relative effects and desirability of subsidies for abatement technology. We find a more robust recommendation for upstream subsidies than for downstream subsidies. Downstream subsidies tend to increase global abatement technology prices, reduce pollution abatement abroad and increase emission leakage. On the contrary, upstream subsidies reduce abatement technology prices, and hence also emissions leakage.     

环境约束下大都市城郊土地利用结构评价——基于信息熵和非期望产出模型分析

土地利用过程中会产生期望和非期望产出,针对以往土地利用结构评价中忽略环境产生的非期望产出而影响土地利用结构效率真实性问题,以大都市城郊的上海青浦区为例,宏观上,运用信息熵模型对该区2005~2014年土地利用结构有序性进行评价;微观上,运用非期望产出模型测算青浦区研究期间土地利用结构效率,为寻求区域土地利用结构效率损失的原因及改善途径提供参考。结果表明:(1)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构信息熵值时序上呈现"M"形变化趋势,空间上由中部向东西两翼递减;(2)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构效率变化趋势在时间序列上呈现"W"形变化趋势,空间上由中部的中心城区向东西两翼递减格局;(3)将环境的负产出纳入非期望产出模型进行土地利用结构效率评价,能更加准确的反映土地利用结构效率的真实性;(4)影响青浦区土地利用结构效率水平变化的主要因素为纯技术效率的变化,资源过度消耗和环境污染物排放过量是制约青浦区土地利用结构效率提升的主要原因。针对土地利用结构效率损失的原因及区域差异提出效率提升途径。研究结果可为青浦区土地利用结构优化和可持续发展提供科学借鉴。     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

The in vitro effect of selected essential oils on the growth and mycotoxin production of Aspergillus species

The aim of the present study was to assess the antifungal and anti-toxinogenic activity of 15 essential oils (EOs) against three fungi of the genus Aspergillus (A. parasiticus KMi-227-LR, A. parasiticus KMi-220-LR and A. flavus KMi-202-LR). The minimum inhibitory doses (MIDs) of the tested essential oils and their antifungal activity were determined using the micro-atmosphere method. The original commercial essential oil samples of Jasminum officinale L., Thymus vulgaris L., Syzygium aromaticum (L.) Merrill &; Perry, Rosmarinus officinalis L., Ocimum basilicum L., Eucalyptus globulus Labill., Salvia officinalis L., Citrus limon (L.) Burm, Origanum vulgare L., Lavandula angustifolia Mill., Carum carvi L., Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck., Zingiber officinalis Rosc., Mentha piperita L. and Cinnamomum zeylanicum Nees. (C. verum J.S.Presl.) were produced in Slovakia (Calendula a.s., Nová ?ubovňa, Slovakia). All essential oils exhibited activity against all tested strains of fungi. After 14 days of incubation, A. flavus (KMi-202-LR) showed the highest susceptibility with a growth inhibition percentage (GIP) of 18.70% to C. limon and 5.92% to C. sinensis, while A. parasiticus (KMi-220-LR) exhibited a GIP of 20.56% to J. officinale. The minimum inhibitory doses (MIDs) of EOs with the most significant activity were recorded. The best antifungal activity, using the micro-atmosphere method was found in S. aromaticum with an MID of 62.5 μL L^?1 air, T. vulgaris (MID of 62.5 μL L^?1 air) and O. vulgare (MID of 31.5 μL L^?1 air) against all tested strains. Mycotoxin production of the tested strains was evaluated by the thin layer chromatography (TLC) method. Mycotoxin production of AFB₁ and AFG₁ was inhibited following all treatments with C. carvi, R. officinale and S. officinale, Eucalyptus globulus L. and O. basilicum L. Essential oils exhibited a potential inhibition activity against toxic fungi, although, these affected only the production of AFB₁.     

我国长江流域中三角区域大气污染物排放特征研究

中三角区域已经是我国第四个国家级城市群,也将成为我国经济增长的"第四极"。在经济发展的同时,更需要以节能减排、资源环境等为重点,以实现经济建设与生态文明"双可持续"的协同发展。本文以二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘为主要大气污染物,对我国中三角区域大气污染物排放进行了详细的分析,并与京津冀、长三角、珠三角、"三区十群"等进行了多方位比较。结果表明,2013年中三角区域二氧化硫排放量为151.7万t,其中工业二氧化硫排放量为140.1万t;氮氧化物排放量为147.2万t,其中工业氮氧化物排放量为93.6万t;烟(粉)尘排放量为81.8万t,其中工业烟(粉)尘排放量为71.4万t。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘排放量均位于"四极"的第三。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘单位GDP排放强度分别为25.03t/亿元、24.29 t/亿元、13.50 t/亿元,分别位于"四极"的第一、第二、第二。同时,本文还从经济发展模式、产业结构调整、煤炭消费方式等方面对我国中三角等经济"四极"提出了相关建议。     

Optimizing mixture properties of biodiesel production using genetic algorithm-based evolutionary support vector machine

Nowadays, biodiesel is used as one of the alternative renewable energy due to the increasing energy demand. However, optimum production of biodiesel still requires a huge number of expensive and time-consuming laboratory tests. To address the problem, this research develops a novel Genetic Algorithm-based Evolutionary Support Vector Machine (GA-ESIM). The GA-ESIM is an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based tool that combines K-means Chaotic Genetic Algorithm (KCGA) and Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM). The ESIM is utilized as a supervised learning technique to establish a highly accurate prediction model between the input--output of biodiesel mixture properties; and the KCGA is used to perform the simulation to obtain the optimum mixture properties based on the prediction model. A real biodiesel experimental data is provided to validate the GA-ESIM performance. Our simulation results demonstrate that the GA-ESIM establishes a prediction model with better accuracy than other AI-based tool and thus obtains the mixture properties with the biodiesel yield of 99.9%, higher than the best experimental data record, 97.4%.     

韩国西海岸地区停车场径流携带沉积物的粒径分布及污染特征研究

为了解沿海地区城市停车场内径流携带沉积物的粒径分布及污染特征,于2011年4—6月在韩国西海岸12个不同停车场采集了沉积物样品,分别分析了其粒径分布和各粒径中污染物质的含量.结果表明,不同采样点的废弃物形态差异较大,主要表现在较大的植物茎叶、烟蒂及动物粪便等废弃物和含水率等方面.不同采样点的颗粒物粒径大小不同,其颗粒物的均一性也有所差异.总体来讲,106～500μm之间的颗粒物是径流携带沉积物的主要组成部分,其平均质量分数占总体(<2360μm)颗粒物的59.9%.对不同粒径中污染物质的含量分析得出,颗粒物中污染物质的含量随粒径增大而减小.其中,<106μm的颗粒物中总氮、总磷、COD和挥发性物质的质量分别占各污染物总量的18.9%、17.8%、20.41%和18.9%,而该部分颗粒物本身的平均质量分数只有3.9%.可见<106μm的颗粒物处于高度污染状态.因此,在城市停车场面源污染管理中,应该对该部分高度污染的颗粒物给以足够的重视.对于不同污染特征的颗粒物应该采用不同的去除方法.